Market participants must rely upon probability assessments of the current state of the economy, that is, their rational ex-ante estimates of recession fears, when making financial and investment decisions. This paper explores whether ex-ante recession fears, modelled using probit analysis of...

This paper examines whether stock market returns forecasts should take account of the political party in power by re-examining the prior literature to demonstrate that US stock market political regime differences are neither significant nor long-lasting. We demonstrate that the presidential...