What are the cross-sectional and time-series characteristics of corporate bond returns? Do corporate bond risk premia vary over time and are these time-variations predictable? And if yes, is it a sign of market inefficiency? Recent empirical studies show a strong mean reversion at the monthly...

The paper develops a tail risk forecasting model that incorporates the wealth of economic and financial information available to risk managers. The approach can be viewed as a regularized extension of the two-stage GARCH-EVT model of McNeil and Frey (2000) where we permit a time-varying...