Understanding the Stock Return-Inflation Nexus is a continuing concern among scholars. The main goal of the current study was to critically examine the view that the relation between stock return and inflation is potentially asymmetric. To capture the possibility of dynamic nonlinearity and, in...

The existing econometric evidence on the relationship between stock indices and real economic activity is inconclusive despite theoretical arguments suggesting a long-term relationship. Previous studies indicate that the link between stock prices and growth became weaker in the 1980s. In this...

We build an equilibrium model to explain why stock return predictability concentrates in bad times. The key feature is that investors use different forecasting models, and hence assess uncertainty differently. As economic conditions deteriorate, uncertainty rises and investors' opinions...