Using a novel measure of industry exposure to government spending, we document predictable variation in cash flows and stock returns over political cycles. During Democratic presidencies, firms with high government exposure experience higher cash flows and stock returns, while the opposite...

We find that consumption risk is lower in states that implement counter-cyclical fiscal policies. Moreover, firms whose investor base are concentrated in counter-cyclical states have lower stock returns, along with firms that relocate their headquarters to a counter-cyclical state. Therefore,...

This paper examines the relationship between two Presidential elections and stock returns in Egypt. The available literature showed mixed results on the relationship between Presidential Elections and stock returns. The author examined daily data and used an OLS regression. Each Event Window...

We develop a model of political cycles driven by time-varying risk aversion. Agents choose to work in the public or private sector and to vote Democrat or Republican. In equilibrium, when risk aversion is high, agents elect Democrats—the party promising more redistribution. The model predicts...

We develop a model of political cycles driven by time-varying risk aversion. Agents choose to work in the public or private sector and to vote Democrat or Republican. In equilibrium, when risk aversion is high, agents elect Democrats---the party promising more redistribution. The model predicts...

We develop a model of political cycles driven by time-varying risk aversion. Heterogeneous agents make two choices: whether to work in the public or private sector and which of two political parties to vote for. The model implies that when risk aversion is high, agents are more likely to elect...