The field-based experimental approach was utilized to collect expectations-arbitrage portfolios from more than 100 competent investors at the pick of the financial crisis. The average annual return on 117 portfolios was 5.2% with 55% profitability rate. Prior self confidence emerges as the...

The experimental approach is applied to explore the value of unidentified historical information in stock-return prediction. Return sequences were randomly drawn cross section and time from historical S&P500 data. Subjects were requested to predict returns or select stocks from 12 preceding...