The main objective of this paper is to quantify the effect of expectation changes about discount rate and dividend growth rate over the Chilean market portfolio returns. The model applied was taken from the works of Campbell and Shiller (1988, 1988a), Campbell (1991) and Campbell and Vuolteenaho...

Implied expected returns are the expected returns for which a supposedly mean-variance efficient portfolio is effectively efficient given a covariance matrix. We analyze the statistical properties of monthly implied expected return estimates and study their sensitivity to the choice of a...

We use firm characteristics to estimate the enduring momentum probabilities for past winners (losers) to continue to be future winners (losers). The enduring momentum probability is significantly related to stock return persistence and explains cross-sectional expected returns. In addition, it...

This study shows that 14 widely documented technical indicators explain cross-sectional stock expected returns. The technical indicators have lower estimation errors than the three factor Fama-French model and the historical mean. The long-short portfolios based on the cross-sectional estimated...

Value-at-Risk (VaR) has become the universally accepted metric in the financial services industry for internal control and for regulatory reporting. This has focused attention on methods of measuring, estimating and forecasting lower tail risk. One promising technique is Quantile Regression...

Return-volume relationships are of common interest as they may unearth dependencies that can form the basis of profitable trading strategies, and this has implications for market efficiency. This study investigates the dynamics of relationship between trading volume and returns of Nigerian...

We explore whether there are common factors in the cross-section of individual commodity futures returns. We test various asset pricing models which have been employed for the equities market as well as models motivated by commodity pricing theories. The use of these families of models allows us...

Using quantile regression this paper explores predictability of the stock and bond return distributions as a function of economic state variables. The use of quantile regression allows us to examine specific parts of the return distribution such as the tails and the center, and for a...

In an intertemporal equilibrium asset pricing model featuring disappointment aversion and changing macroeconomic uncertainty, we show that besides the market return and market volatility, three disappointment-related factors are also priced: a downstate factor, a market downside factor, and a...

A number of studies have found that the cross-section of stock returns reflects a risk premium for bearing downside risk; however, existing measures of downside risk have poor power for predicting returns. Therefore, this paper proposes a novel measure of downside risk, the ES-implied beta, to...