This book shows how current and recent market prices convey information about the probability distributions that govern future prices. Moving beyond purely theoretical models, Stephen Taylor applies methods supported by empirical research of equity and foreign exchange markets to show how daily...

This book shows how current and recent market prices convey information about the probability distributions that govern future prices. Moving beyond purely theoretical models, Stephen Taylor applies methods supported by empirical research of equity and foreign exchange markets to show how daily...

We compile option-implied tail loss and gain measures based on a deep out-of-the- money option pricing formula derived by applying ‘extreme value theory', and then use these measures to investigate the information content of option-implied tail risk on the future returns of the underlying...

We derive the theoretical relation between the term structure of implied variance and the expected excess returns of the underlying asset. Adopting three alternative approaches to compile the variables representing the information on the implied volatility index level and term structure, we show...

While numerous prior studies report that call–put implied volatility spreads positively predict future stock returns, recent literature shows that the predictive relation is negative for future call option returns. We investigate whether and, if so, how the predictive relation for options...