I extract three oil risk factors using oil futures prices and returns of oil related firms. The first factor accounts for news that uniformly affects expected oil prices at all horizons, the second factor accounts for news that affects near term expected oil prices, and the third factor accounts...

We develop a general framework for measuring biases in expectation formation. The method is based on the insight that biases can be inferred from the response of forecast errors to past news. Empirically, biases are measured by flexibly estimating the impulse response function of forecast...