We perform a comprehensive examination of the recursive, comparative predictive performance of a number of linear and non-linear models for UK stock and bond returns. We estimate Markov switching, threshold autoregressive (TAR), and smooth transition autoregressive (STR) regime switching models,...

This paper examines the effect of structural break in long-run mean of dividend-price ratio and its impact on long-horizon returns predictive regression in the Stock Exchange of Thailand from April 1975 to December 2010. The empirical results show that there exists a structural break in...

This paper documents a significantly stronger relationship between the slope of the yield curve and future excess bond returns on Treasuries from 2008-2015 than before 2008. This new predictability result is not matched by the standard shadow rate model with Gaussian factor dynamics, but...

This paper explores the effect of oil price fluctuations on the stock returns of U.S. oil firms using a strategy of identification through heteroskedasticity exploiting the 2020 oil crash. Results are twofold. First, we find that a decline in oil prices statistically significantly reduces stock...

I propose a neoclassical production economy with costly external financing, partial investment irreversibility, and endogenous investment/financing decisions to rationalize and quantify the well-documented interaction between the book-to-market equity effect and the financial leverage effect in...

What is the cross-sectional relationship between financial leverage and expected equity returns? How is the empirical relationship associated with firm's financial decisions? This paper investigates the potential explanations for the flatness relation between financial leverage and expected...

This paper rationalizes empirical patterns of market leverage, book leverage, book-to-market ratios, and stock returns across different book-to-market portfolios, using a model of firm financing and investment. The model shows analytically that tax-deductibility of interest payments increases...

We analyse interactions of simultaneous shifts in comprehensive balance sheet items annually and identify common (latent) factors, which are consistent across years. Five factors are interpreted to reflect five major decisions in businesses: Financial Flexibility, Short-term Credit, Long-term...

The WACC is just the rate at which the Free Cash Flows must be discounted to obtain the same result as in the valuation using Equity Cash Flows discounted at the required return to equity (Ke).The WACC is neither a cost nor a required return: it is a weighted average of a cost and a required...

This paper examines the cross-sectional relation between leverage and future stock returns. Prior research documents a puzzling negative correlation. We show that it is largely caused by firms' use of internal financing when having significant off-balance-sheet operating assets due to...