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Research examining the usefulness of non-linear models for stock market returns has almost reached an impasse. While there is general recognition of the superior ability of non-linear models to describe the data, there is less certainty about their ability to forecast the data. As such simple...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013158958
There is a generalized conviction that variation in dividend yields is exclusively related to expected returns and not to expected dividend growth - e.g. Cochrane's presidential address (Cochrane (2011)). We show that this pattern, although valid for the aggregate stock market, is not true for...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013036406
This paper develops a broad-based sentiment indicator for Germany and investigates whether investor sentiment can explain stock returns on the German stock market. Based on a principal component analysis, we construct a sentiment indicator that condenses information of several well-known...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009705481
This paper investigates whether investor sentiment can explain stock returns on the German stock market. Based on a principal component analysis, we construct a sentiment indicator that condenses information of several well-known sentiment proxies. We show that this indicator explains the return...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013139805
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recessions in the Eurozone from the 1990s to the recent past. Credit default swap (CDS) data on sovereign bonds, which provide a … using the commonly employed yield spread remains high, provided that biases associated with Eurozone sovereign default risk …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010419649
A 'lost decade' for the Eurozone is looming on the horizon. Under these circumstances, stable indicators for future … spreads, growth is sparse in the Eurozone. We find this to be caused by default risks, which are distorting the long …-term interest rates of many Eurozone countries. Therefore, a new method of risk adjustment is introduced. We employ credit default …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010492457
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