We leverage supervisory microdata to uncover the role of global banks' risk limits in driving exchange rate dynamics. Consistent with a model of currency intermediation under risk constraints, shocks to dealers' risk limits lead to price and quantity adjustments in the foreign exchange market....

This paper provides an empirical investigation of the time-series predictive ability of foreign exchange risk measures on the return to the carry trade, a popular investment strategy that borrows in low-interest currencies and lends in high-interest currencies. Using quantile regressions, we...

We sort currencies by countries' consumption growth over the past four quarters. Currency portfolios of countries experiencing consumption booms have higher Sharpe ratios than those of countries going through a consumption-based recession. A carry strategy that goes short in countries that are...

We study a cross section of carry-trade-generated currency excess returns in terms of their exposure to global fundamental macroeconomic risk. The cross-country high-minuslow (HML) conditional skewness of the unemployment gap - our measure of global macroeconomic uncertainty - is a factor that...

This paper addresses the predictive ability of currency volatility risk premium - the difference between an implied and a realized volatility - over US dollar exchange rates using a time series perspective. The intuition is that, when risk aversion sentiment increases, the market quickly...

We describe a novel currency investment strategy, the `dollar carry trade,' which delivers large excess returns, uncorrelated with the returns on well-known carry trade strategies. Using a no-arbitrage model of exchange rates we show that these excess returns compensate U.S. investors for taking...

The foreign exchange (FX) market is considered to be the largest and presumably most liquid financial market in the world. We show that even in this market exposure to liquidity risk commands a non-trivial risk premium of up to 3.6% per annum. In particular, systematic and currency-specific...

This paper presents a new hierarchical methodology for estimating multi factor dynamic asset pricing models. The approach is loosely based on the sequential approach of Fama and MacBeth (1973). However, the hierarchical method uses very flexible bandwidth selection methods in kernel weighted...

Monetary policy loosening and the associated impact on credit availability may have played a role in the present financial crisis. If such liquidity risk exists and is undiversifiable, then loose monetary policy should be associated with a risk premium. This paper tests for the existence of such...

The main objective of this paper is to investigate the diversification role of currency momentum for carry trade crashes during the turbulent periods surrounding the 1997-1998 Asian financial crisis and the 2007-2008 global financial crisis. The motivation is to use an important tendency of...