We show analytically under quite general conditions that implied rates of return based on analysts' earnings forecasts are only a downward biased estimator for future expected one-period returns and therefore not suited for computing market risk premia. The extent of this bias is substantial as...

A non-stationary regression model for financial returns is examined theoretically in this paper. Volatility dynamics are modelled both exogenously and deterministic, captured by a nonparametric curve estimation on equidistant centered returns. We prove consistency and asymptotic normality of a...

The estimation of expected security returns is one of the major tasks for the practical implementation of the Markowitz portfolio optimization. Against this background, in 1992 Black and Litterman developed an approach based on (theoretically established) expected equili-brium returns which...

In this paper we analyze a multivariate non-stationary regression model empirically. With the knowledge about unconditional heteroscedasticty of financial returns, based on univariate studies and a congruent paradigm in Gürtler and Rauh (2009), we test for a time-varying covariance structure...

We show analytically under quite general conditions that time-varying implied rates of return based on analysts' earnings forecasts are only a downward biased estimator for future expected one-period returns and therefore not suited for computing market risk premia in order to resolve the equity...

A non-stationary regression model for financial returns is examined theoretically. Volatility dynamics are modeled by nonparametric curve estimation on equidistant return vectors. We prove consistency and asymptotic normality of symmetric estimators and of one-sided estimators for variances and...