Presentation Slides for "Overconfidence, Arbitrage, and Equilibrium Asset Pricing" This paper offers a model in which asset prices reflect both covariance risk and misperceptions of firmsapos prospects, and in which arbitrageurs trade against mispricing. In equilibrium, expected returns are...

We contribute to the literature by developing a model that studies the incentives of individuals to engage in market timing when their ability to trade is unknown. We characterize the optimal investment decision process and provide empirical predictions. Using administrative data from the...

Mutual funds hold 32% of the U.S. equity market and comprise 58% of retirement savings, yet retail investors consistently make poor choices when selecting funds. Theory suggests that poor choices are partially due to mutual fund managers creating unnecessarily complex disclosures and fee...

Confident investors trade more than less confident investors, but why? Prior research tests the ultimate relation between investor confidence and trading, but does not empirically examine the underlying mechanism that explains why confidence leads to trading. We complement the literature by...

You're probably familiar, at least in passing, with the 'convexity' of long-term bonds - i.e. that yields dropping 1% produce a bigger price move than yields rising 1%. A significant amount of brainpower has gone into understanding all the ramifications of this convexity in the fixed income...

We find a significant negative relationship between stock returns during the week and the reported incidence of domestic violence during the weekend. Our findings suggest that wealth shocks caused by the stock market can affect stress levels within families, escalate arguments, and trigger...

Exponential-growth bias is the tendency to neglect the compounding of interest. The economics literature has used the fact that a biased agent in many circumstances will underestimate the value of assets that grow according to compound interest. We show that the opposite can also be true. It is...

Do timing and time diversification improve the average investor?s stock market return? Contrary to literature?s scenario of wealthy investors, average investors invest each month over life. Many purchases prevent investors from buying at peak, but horizons decrease, giving latter investments...

We show that the net corporate payout yield predicts both the stock market index and house prices and that the log home rent-price ratio predicts both house prices and labor income growth. We incorporate the predictability in a rich life-cycle model of household decisions involving consumption...

Managing retirement wealth is one of the major financial decisions that individuals face. In this setting, I document a strong negative relationship between stock market returns and annuitization. Using a novel dataset with more than 103,000 actual payout decisions, I find that positive stock...