The paper explains why firms with high dispersion of analyst forecasts earn low future returns. These firms beat the CAPM in periods of increasing aggregate volatility and thereby provide a hedge against aggregate volatility risk. The aggregate volatility risk factor can explain the abnormal...

This paper develops an analytically coherent yet parsimonious framework which explains market returns in terms of contemporaneous information. It anchors on the idea that valuation (static perspective) can be connected to the dynamics that explains returns, and vice versa. The framework requires...

An accurate forecast of real return requires that accounting and debt adjustments be made to reported earnings. This article presents methodologies that investors can use to estimate the accounting and debt adjustments for individual companies and offers evidence, derived from a predictive...

This paper reviews research that uses big data and/or machine learning methods to provide insight relevant for equity valuation. Given the huge volume of research in this area, the review focuses on studies that either use or inform on accounting variables. The article concludes by providing...

The objective of this paper is to analyze the suitability of the Total Market Return approach within the requirements of the capital asset pricing model, and for the purpose of business valuation, particularly in light of its endorsement by the institute of German auditors (IDW). First, we...

This paper examines to what extent stock market anomalies are driven by firm fundamentals in an investment-based asset pricing framework. Using Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC), we estimate a two-capital q-model to match firm-level stock returns, instead of matching portfolio-level...

This paper uses accounting-based reverse engineering of market expectations to identify potentially mispriced stocks. Building upon the “errors-in-expectations” hypothesis, we develop a theoretically funded yet practical tool for stock screening in this paper. We use the Ohlson (1995) model...

This paper examines how the size of the rolling window, and the frequency used in moving average (MA) trading strategies, affects financial performance when risk is measured. We use the MA rule for market timing, that is, for when to buy stocks and when to shift to the risk-free rate. The...

Consider using the simple moving average (MA) rule of Gartley (1935) to determine when to buy stocks, and when to sell them and switch to the risk-free rate. In comparison, how might the performance be affected if the frequency is changed to the use of MA calculations? The empirical results show...

Previous research finds that EPS growth is difficult to predict and reasons that much of the observed variation in valuation multiples is due to mispricing (e.g., Lakonishok, Shleifer, and Vishny, 1994; Chan, Karceski, and Lakonishok, 2003; Israel, Laursen, and Richardson, 2021). We revisit these...