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Global asset allocation provides risk diversification. But international market correlation increases sharply during … global crises and diversification benefit disappears when it is most needed. We model these correlation breaks and derive the … asset allocation implications. The model can quickly detect crises and suggests adapting allocation for changing correlation …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012927418
impact on stock return correlations than shocks to futures. We confirm the model predictions by studying the correlation of U …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013004525
that characterize long-term correlation patterns. We associate such term behavior with low frequency economic variables … improves the empirical fit of equity correlations in the US and correlation forecasts at long horizons. -- Factor models ; Low … frequency volatilities and correlations ; Dynamic conditional correlation ; Spline-GARCH ; Idiosyncratic volatility ; Long …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003821063
We study whether prices of traded options contain information about future extreme market events. Our option-implied conditional expectation of market loss due to tail events, or tail loss measure, predicts future market returns, magnitude, and probability of the market crashes, beyond and above...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010226098
We study the economic sources of stock-bond return comovement and its time variation using a dynamic factor model. We identify the economic factors employing structural and non-structural vector autoregressive models for economic state variables such as interest rates, (expected) inflation,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013132852
This paper explores the time variation in the stock-bond correlation using high-frequency data. Gradual transitions … between regimes of negative and positive stock-bond correlation are well accommodated by the smooth transition regression (STR …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013116164
This paper explores the time variation in the stock-bond correlation using high-frequency data. Gradual transitions … between regimes of negative and positive stock-bond correlation are well accommodated by the smooth transition regression (STR …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013116168
-wide shocks. Overall, the results suggest that asymmetric correlation in stock returns is asymmetric correlation in stock …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013014521
Because levered equity is an option on the firm, variations in asset idiosyncratic risk (ivol) induces a negative relationship between equity ivol and expected returns. We show that the effect is caused by the nonlinear payoff of equity and the law of one price, and is present in all but...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012910108
, the two-component DCC-MIDAS model of correlation Colacito, Engle & Ghysels (2011) is used and extended to incorporate a … third correlation frequency component. Subsequently, macroeconomic and financial variables are studied as determinants of … each component. We show that the daily correlation component is driven by financial market factors, while the monthly …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012899144