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The cross-sectional average of pairwise correlations across stocks traded on the NYSE, AMEX, and Nasdaq is a powerful predictor of U.S. economic activity at a horizon of one to four years. Its predictive ability is on a par with the slope of the yield curve and significantly exceeds that of some...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014227600
We investigate both theoretically and empirically how unemployment level and its growth affect future stock returns. We find that both a higher unemployment rate and higher growth of unemployment positively predict future stock market returns. In our model, the effects come through their...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014352081
In this paper, I examine how labor shortage affects hiring-return relationship. I construct firm-year level measure of … labor shortage using textual analysis of firms' SEC fillings. I show that the negative relationship between firm's hiring … likely to discuss labor shortage. Once they do, their current hiring and future investment rate drop, leverage and book to …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014349824
We document the empirical fact that asset prices in the consumption-goods and investment-goods sector behave almost identically in the US economy. In order to derive the cyclical behavior of the equity returns in these two sectors, we consider a standard two-sector real-business cycle model with...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009786095
We document the empirical fact that asset prices in the consumption-goods and investment-goods sector behave almost identically in the US economy. In order to derive the cyclical behavior of the equity returns in these two sectors, we onsider a standard two-sector real-business cycle model with...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010482490
. The channel predicts that geographies with historically higher volatility will feature more wealth inequality than income …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012819358
Our study contributes to the literature in two directions. First, we investigate the behaviour of futures prices returns for different energy and agricultural commodities, over the period 1986-2010. Second, we measure the market vulnerability to financial speculation for energy commodities over...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013091268
We examine the pricing of both aggregate jump and volatility risk in the cross-section of stock returns by constructing … investable option trading strategies that load on one factor but are orthogonal to the other. Both aggregate jump and volatility … volatility risk have low expected returns. Both can be measured separately and are important economically, with a two …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013070232
This paper investigates the intertemporal relation between volatility spreads and expected returns on the aggregate … stock market. We provide evidence for a signi ficantly negative link between volatility spreads and expected returns at the … extreme values. The intertemporal relation remains strongly negative after controlling for conditional volatility, variance …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013038211
is studied in details, which incorporates the fat tails into the volatility (aka the volatility of volatility). We show … underlying capital distribution is the fundamental driving force of the bull-bear market cycles and the market volatility in the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013159227