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variancefunctions. In a genuine out-of-sample forecasting experiment theperformance of the best fitted asMA-asQGARCH model is compared … topure asMA and no-change forecasts. This is done both in terms ofconditional mean forecasting as well as in terms of risk … forecasting. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011303289
forecasting volatility. Key papers in this area include Andersen, Bollerslev, Diebold and Labys (2003), Corsi (2004), Andersen …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009771770
forecasting volatility model with the most appropriate error distribution. The results suggest the presence of leverage effect … forecasting model that could guarantee a sound policy decisions. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011489480
tests. It is demonstrated that misspecifications of forecasting models can be detected within the proposed regression … power in many practical situations and therefore frequently selects incorrect forecasting models. The empirical results …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011431370
We propose a new approach to model high and low frequency components of equity correlations. Our framework combines a factor asset pricing structure with other specifications capturing dynamic properties of volatilities and covariances between a single common factor and idiosyncratic returns....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003821063
We introduce a new hybrid approach to joint estimation of Value at Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES) for high quantiles of return distributions. We investigate the relative performance of VaR and ES models using daily returns for sixteen stock market indices (eight from developed and eight...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003891679
This paper examines whether the predictability of securitized real estate returns differs from that of stock returns. It also provides a cross-country comparison of securitized real estate return predictability. In contrast to most of the literature on this issue, the analysis is not based on a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003962134
The paper advances the log-generalized gamma distribution as a suitable generator of conditional skewness. Based on the NYSE composite daily returns an asMA-asQGARCH model along with skewness dynamics is estimated. The results indicate a skewness that varies between sizeable negative skewness...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011398115
This paper extends the popular Diebold-Mariano test to situations when the forecast error loss differential exhibits long memory. It is shown that this situation can arise frequently, since long memory can be transmitted from forecasts and the forecast objective to forecast error loss...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011430242
The sum of squared intraday returns provides an unbiased and almost error-free measure of ex-post volatility. In this paper we develop a nonlinear Autoregressive Fractionally Integrated Moving Average (ARFIMA) model for realized volatility, which accommodates level shifts, day-of-the-week...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011335205