The traditional modern portfolio model posits that return is a function of beta - the stocks's sensitivity to market movements. However, much research suggests that on an empirical basis this expectation does not hold. Pettengill, Sundaram and Mathur (1995) {PSM} suggest that the problem is that...

The traditional modern portfolio model posits that return is a function of beta—the stock's sensitivity to market movements. However, much research suggests that on an empirical basis this expectation does not hold. Pettengill, Sundaram and Mathur (1995) [PSM] suggest that the problem is that...

Campbell and Shiller average 10 years of real S&P 500 earnings to construct its Cyclically Adjusted P/E ratio, or CAPE, which they then use to forecast its future 10-year returns. In essence, Campbell and Shiller kill two birds with one large stone - they use the 10-year average to reduce noise...

In this paper, we explore the interconnection and existing relationships between the Sovereign Credit Default Swaps (henceforth, CDS) and the stock markets of the main European countries. Thus, the goal of this paper is to test if the CDS premia can predict the stock market returns of the most...

Hedge Fund returns are often highly serially correlated mainly due to illiquidity exposures given that investments in such securities tend to be inactively traded and associated market prices are not always readily available. Following that, observed returns of such alternative investments tend...

Pricing of capital share risks provides a novel link between macroeconomicsand finance. Our paper adopts the Epstein-Zin type utility framework andthe Bansal and Yaron's (2004) long-run risk model to derive an heterogeneousasset pricing model that extends Lettau et al.'s (2019) capital share...

We propose a joint modeling strategy for timing the joint distribution of the returns and their volatility. We do this by incorporating the potentially asymmetric links into the system of 'independent' predictive regressions of returns and volatility, allowing for asymmetric cross-correlations,...