This paper investigates the effect of credit risk on the return of stocks. We construct a systematic factor in relation to credit risk using the credit spreads of individual firms measured from the Merton (1974) model. This enables us to include firms without credit spreads or ratings...

A 'lost decade' for the Eurozone is looming on the horizon. Under these circumstances, stable indicators for future economic activity are especially valuable to decision makers. This paper examines the predictive power of the yield spread, one of the most reliable indicators for gross domestic...

An OLS and probit framework is used to examine the predictive power of yield spreads with respect to GDP growth and recessions in the Eurozone from the 1990s to the recent past. Credit default swap (CDS) data on sovereign bonds, which provide a direct measure of default risk, are employed as...