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Expectations of risky bond payments are unobservable and recovery rates for sovereigns are hard to estimate because …
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This paper investigates the sensitivity of the demand for safe government debt to currency unhedged and hedged excess returns in a sample of US mutual funds. We find evidence of active rebalancing towards government bonds that offer relatively higher returns on an unhedged basis, in particular...
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This paper analyzes the influence of downside risk on defaultable bond returns. By introducing a defaultable bond … bond excess returns using a portfolio-level analysis and Fama-MacBeth regressions. We find that downside risk is a strong … and robust predictor for future bond returns. In addition, due to the higher proportion of abnormal transactions in the …
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realized defaults. Furthermore, it predicts future equity and corporate bond returns, even after controlling for many existing …
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