This paper studies tests of predictability in regressions with a given AR(1) regressor and an asset return dependent variable measured over a short or long horizon. The paper shows that when there is a persistent predictable component in the return, an increase in the horizon may increase the R2...

This paper takes shareholder level taxes into account in determining the performance of growth and growth and income mutual funds over the 1963-1992 period. It ranks a sample of funds on a before and after-tax basis for investors in different income classes facing various investment horizons....

This paper breaks assets' betas with common factors into components attributable to news about future cash flows, real interest rates, and excess returns. To achieve this decomposition the paper uses a vector autoregressive time-series model and an approximate log-linear present value relation....

This paper investigates the relationship between stock market trading volume and the autocorrelations of daily stock index returns. The paper finds that stock return autocorrelations tend to decline with trading volume. The paper explains this phenomenon using a model in which risk-averse...

This paper argues that an important part of movements in asset prices may be caused by neither external news nor irrationality, but the by revelation of information by the trading process itself. Two models are developed that illustrate this general idea. One model is based on investor...

Under conventional notions about rational expectations and market efficiency, expected returns differ from the actual expost returns by a forecast error that is uncorrelated with current information. In this paper, we describe how small departures from conventional notions of rational...

This paper derives simple closed-form solutions for expected rates of return on stocks and riskless one-period bills under the assumption that shocks to the growth rates of consumption and dividends are generated by a Markov regime-switching process. These closed-form solutions are used to show...

This paper tests a factor pricing model for stock returns. The factors are returns on physical investment, inferred from investment data via a production function. The tests examine the model's ability to explain the variation in expected returns across assets and over time. The model is not...

In a two-period Lucas tree economy in which ex ante identical, but ex post dissimilar, agents face undiversifiable labor income risk, calibrating a (wrong) representative agent model results in overstating the equilibrium riskfree rate and in understanding the equilibrium equity premium if the...

This paper explores the sources of uncertainty that cause firms to revise their capital investment plans and the stock market to revise its valuation of those firms. A simple method is developed to decompose the uncertainty governing revisions in investment plans and the stock market rate of...