Measures of corporate credit risk incorporate compensation for unpredictable future changes in the credit environment and compensation for expected default losses. Since the launch of purchases of government securities and corporate securities by the European Central Bank, it has been discussed...

Using an aggregate credit spread index, we find that it has substantial predictive power for corporate bond returns over short and long horizons. The return predictability is economically and statistically significant and robust to various controls. The credit spread index and its components...