We use a Panel Smooth Transition Regression (STR) model to study nonlinearities in the expectation-formation process in the U.S. stock market. To this end, we use data from the Livingston survey to investigate how the importance of regressive and extrapolative expectations fluctuates over time...

The Federal Reserve's 2009 program to purchase $300 billion of U.S. Treasury securities represented an unprecedented intervention in the Treasury market and provides a natural experiment with the potential to shed light on the price elasticities of Treasuries and theories of supply effects in...

This paper examines the relation between variations in perceived inflation uncertainty and bond premia. Using the subjective probability distributions available in the Survey of Professional Forecasters we construct a quarterly time series of average individual uncertainty about inflation...

We examine the asymmetric impact of shocks to macroeconomic expectations and their underlying dispersion on equity risk premia across different market regimes. First, we rely on a two-state logit mixture vector autoregressive model and use Consensus Economics survey data on GDP growth,...

According to the dynamic version of the Gordon growth model, the long-run expected return on stocks, stock yield, is the sum of the dividend yield on stocks plus some weighted average of expected future growth rates in dividends. We construct a measure of stock yield based on sell-side analysts'...

According to the dynamic version of the Gordon growth model, the long-run expected return on stocks, stock yield, is the sum of the dividend yield on stocks plus some weighted average of expected future growth rates in dividends. We construct a measure of stock yield as a model-imposed affine...