This paper proposes empirical methods to measure Credit Default Swap (CDS) return and explores its factor structure. We find that approximated CDS returns deviate significantly from actual returns based on the upfront fee, computed with protection sellers' cash flows. Past CDS returns and the...

We show that short interest predicts future bad news, negative earnings surprises, and downward revisions in analyst earnings forecasts. Moreover, short interest is a better predictor of changes in firm fundamentals for stocks that are harder to short and short sellers appear to have information...