This paper investigates market perceptions of the risk of large exchange rate movements by using information gleaned from risk reversal contracts and macroeconomic news surprises. We focus on the height of the carry trade period in Japan (March 2004 through December 2006). Concerns about sharp...

We investigate the relation between foreign exchange (FX) order flow and the forward bias. We outline a decomposition of the forward bias according to which a negative correlation between interest rate differentials and order flow creates a time-varying risk premium consistent with that bias....

We advocate the use of absolute moment ratio statistics in conjunctionwith standard variance ratio statistics in order to disentangle lineardependence, non-linear dependence, and leptokurtosis in financial timeseries. Both statistics are computed for multiple return horizonssimultaneously, and...

The study analyses the interaction between the trading behaviour of 1,024 moving average and momentum models and the fluctuations of the yen-dollar exchange rate. I show first that these models would have exploited exchange rate trends quite profitably between 1976 and 2007. I then show that the...

The main objective of this paper is to investigate the diversification role of currency momentum for carry trade crashes during the turbulent periods surrounding the 1997-1998 Asian financial crisis and the 2007-2008 global financial crisis. The motivation is to use an important tendency of...

This paper explores the risks and returns to currency speculation during the 1920s and 1930s. We study the performance of two well-known technical trading strategies (carry and momentum) and compare them with that of a fundamentals-based trader: John Maynard Keynes. Technical strategies were...

This paper employs the post — Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (post — LASSO) to make rolling 1-month--ahead currency excess return forecasts using all other currencies' lagged forward discounts as candidate predictors. The trading strategy of buying (selling) quintile...

We start by documenting large differences in bitcoin prices across exchanges located in different countries, or for different fiat currency pairs. For the most reputable exchanges, and after carefully accounting for all the transaction costs and limitations to trade, we find that costly...

Bakshi and Panayotov (2013) find that commodity price changes predict profits from longing high interest rate currencies (long leg profits) up to three months later. We find that equity returns also predict carry trade profits, but from shorting low interest rate currencies (short leg profits)....

Bakshi and Panayotov (2013) find that commodity price changes predict profits from longing high interest rate currencies (long leg profits) up to three months later. We find that equity returns also predict carry trade profits, but from shorting low interest rate currencies (short leg profits)....