We examine intra-market return comovement within each of 33 economies' stock exchanges from 1995 through 2013 using a model-free comovement gauge. We find that the stability of international macroeconomic trilemma policies, the number of crises, and the extent of turnover overshadow the...

Interest rate changes typically affect the value of equities. However, the slow movement of investment capital may delay the transmission of this information from interest rate markets to stocks. Using a century of data from sixty countries, we demonstrate that yield curve shifts predict future...

We examine intra-market return comovement within each of 33 economies' stock exchanges from 1995 through 2013 using a model-free comovement gauge. We find that the stability of international macroeconomic trilemma policies, the number of crises, and the extent of turnover overshadow the...

When is the best time to invest in the stock market? The paper analyzes the best and worst investment periods for each of the twelve months as well as 41 countries and 3 global regions. The paper provides an international perspective to Yale Hirsch's analysis of the United States' stock market....

This paper builds on the recent debate on the in-sample and out-of-sample predictability of US aggregate returns using a wide range of predictors by providing new evidence for smaller and less market-oriented European countries. We find evidence that macro and technical predictors can...

Most of the currency literature investigates the risk and return characteristics of the currency carry trade after the collapse of the Bretton Woods system. In order to gauge the long-term currency carry premium, we extend the sample to 20 currencies over the period 1900 to 2012. We find modest...

The class of generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedastic (GARCH) models has proved particularly valuable in modelling time series with time varying volatility. These include financial data, which can be particularly heavy tailed.This paper investigates the time-series behavior of...

We characterize the joint distribution of long-horizon returns on domestic stocks, international stocks, bonds, and bills. We study 38 developed countries with a sample period of 1890 to 2019, and our data formation procedures mitigate survivor and easy data biases. Bootstrap estimates of the...

We perform the most comprehensive test of long-term reversal in national equity indices ever done. Having examined data from 71 countries for the years 1830 through 2019, we demonstrate a strong reversal pattern: the past long-term return negatively predicts future performance. The phenomenon is...

We examine whether consumer confidence - as a proxy for individual investor sentiment - affects expected stock returns internationally in 18 industrialized countries. In line with recent evidence for the U.S., we find that sentiment negatively forecasts aggregate stock market returns on average...