The aim of this paper is to forecast (out-of-sample) the distribution of financial returns based on realized volatility measures constructed from high-frequency returns. We adopt a semi-parametric model for the distribution by assuming that the return quantiles depend on the realized measures...

We present resiliency as a measure of liquidity, and assess its relationship to expected returns. We establish a covariance-based measure, RES, that captures opening period resiliency and, using it, find a significant non-resiliency premium that ranges from 33 to 57 basis points per month. The...

This paper estimates dynamic factors from the term structure of credit spreads and the term structure of equity option implied volatilities, and it provides a comprehensive characterization of the dynamic relationships among those credit spread factors and equity volatility factors. The paper...

Jensen developed a well-known portfolio performance evaluation measure. Subsequently, Jensen formulated a return-generating model to measure portfolio performance. Lee proposed a generalized specification of the model. This paper investigates the implications of the generalized return-generating...

Monthly returns are used to estimate the single-index market model (SIMM). Binary variables are used to determine if the alpha intercept and beta slope coefficients are stable through alternating bull markets and bear markets. The results suggest that some investment analysts have fallen into...

Future Economic Information Embedded in High Yield SpreadsThe financial accelerator mechanism, also called credit channel theory (Bernanke and Gertler [1995] and Bernanke and Gertler, and Gilchrist [1996]), assumes external financing is more costly than internal financing in the absence of full...