This paper improves continuous-time variance swap approximation formulas to derive exact returns on benchmark VIX option portfolios. The new methodology preserves the variance swap interpretation that decomposes returns into realized variance and option implied-variance.We apply this new...

This study examines the association between a firm's fundamental factors and stock returns as well as how investor sentiment influences the association between these variables. The fundamental factors analyzed include accounting variables (earnings yields, change in profitability, and capital...

We investigate whether eponymous hedge funds-those named after their founder/manager-signal managerial ability or ethical behavior. While such funds do not outperform non-eponymous peers, they exhibit lower operational and fraud risks. Survey evidence supports these findings. Eponymous funds...

This paper develops a behavioural asset pricing model in which traders are not fully rational as is commonly assumed in the literature. The model derived is underpinned by the notion that agents' preferences are affected by their degree of optimism or pessimism regarding future market states. It...

This paper explores the relationship between global wealth and happiness. We employ a bivariate generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity framework for global wealth and happiness represented, respectively, by FTSE All-World and Twitter's Daily Happiness Sentiment indexes from...

This study analyzes the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on exchange rates based on a comprehensive set of survey forecasts for more than 50 currency pairs. At the first stage, we assess whether the policy to manage the COVID-19 pandemic affects the expected path of exchange rates over the medium...

Technological progress in recent years has made new methods available for making forecasts in a variety of areas. We examine the success of ex-ante stock market forecasts of three major stock market indices, i.e., the German Stock Market Index (DAX), the Dow Jones Industrial Index (DJI), and the...

Using tweets from StockTwits and machine-learning classification techniques, we find that social-media sentiment predicts positively and significantly future stock returns, and, importantly, such positive predictability decreases when the number of stocks users follow increases. The return...

This paper examines the prediction that human behavior changes the outcome of market predictability, indicated by a difference in asset pricing model estimated prediction error, calculated using the Sharpe ratio, Jensen's alpha, and the Treynor measure for publicly traded firms in the consumer...

Using a sample of stocks experiencing large price changes in 40 countries over 20 years, we investigate the association between investors' traits that vary by national culture – overconfidence, conservatism, and risk tolerance – and proposed theoretical explanations for short-term equity...