In the context of the multivariate Normal regression model, a mean squared error of prediction is developed for making the choice of subset of explanatory variables for predicting the response variable in future samples

The paper describes the specification, estimation, and testing of an unrestricted structural econometric model design to explain and forecast individual returns of securities listed on the Brazilian stock market. The model's explanatory variables include macroeconomic, fundamental and...

We investigate whether the distributional characteristics of corporate bonds predict the cross-sectional differences in future bond returns. The results indicate a significantly positive (negative) link between volatility (skewness) and expected returns, whereas kurtosis does not make a robust...

Standard factor models imply a linear relationship between expected returns on assets and their factor exposures. We provide the asymptotic properties of factor-model-based expected return estimators for individual assets and show that exploiting this linear relationship leads to precision gains...

It is well-known that outliers exist in the type of multivariate data used by financial practitioners for portfolio construction and risk management. Typically, outliers are addressed prior to model fitting by applying some combination of trimming and/or Winsorization to each individual...

In this paper, we propose a model based on multivariate decomposition of multiplicative—absolute values and signs—components of several returns. In the m-variate case, the marginals for the m absolute values and the binary marginals for the m directions are linked through a 2m-dimensional...

Theory suggests a relationship between both volatility of volatility, variance risk premium, and the equity risk premium. We empirically investigate the relationship between volatility of volatility and the equity risk premium, and the relationship between the variance risk premium and the...

Standard quantitative portfolio analysis techniques, including mean-variance analysis, historical risk and performance estimation, and various portfolio optimization techniques, implicitly require all assets under consideration having the same length of return histories. Unfortunately, it is...

We propose an adjustment of standard regression-based factor attribution to address a common issue: implementation constraints often mean that investors cannot realize the full potential of a factor strategy, but standard attribution analysis assumes that they can – leaving part of the...

The estimation and the analysis of long memory parameters have mainly focused on the analysis of long-range dependence in stock return volatility using traditional time and spectral domain estimators of long memory. The definitive ubiquity and existence of long memory in the volatility of stock...