Expectations for investment returns play an important role in establishing business capital cost and capital structure, as well as influencing individual savings behaviour, risk-taking, and long-term funding of institutional obligations such as pensions. Proper and realistic forecasting makes...

In defined contribution (DC) pension schemes, the regulator usually imposes asset allocation constraints (minimum and maximum limits by asset class) in order to create funds with different risk-return profiles. In this article we challenge this approach and show that such funds exhibit erratic...

A significant part of the development in pension provision in many countries is the emergence of ‘Target Date Funds' or TDFs. In this paper we examine the proposition of de-risking through life and the guidance offered by TDFs in the decumulation phase following retirement. We investigate the...

Current demographic dynamics driven by low fertility and increasing longevity requires adjustments of the traditional frameworks of providing pensions. In this article we highlight three crucial issues policymakers should address by implementing those adjustments. First, fiscal limitations given...

This paper uses stochastic simulations on calibrated models to assess the optimal degree of reliance on fun ded pensions and on a particular type of unfunded (PAYG) pension. Surprisingly little is known about the optimal split between funded and unfunded systems when there are sources of...

This paper uses stochastic simulations on calibrated models to assess the steady state impact of different pension arrangements in an environment where financial markets are less than perfect. Surprisingly little is known about the optimal split between funded and unfunded systems when there are...

We analyze the impacts of an additional rider which is incorporated in recent retirement planning products. The payoff of these products is linked to the performance of a multi asset investment strategy and includes a minimum interest rate guarantee on the contributions.In addition, the buyer...

The purpose of this study is twofold. On one hand we derive an optimal allocation framework between stocks and bonds, with and without a momentum factor, taking into account a regime-switching model based on monthly equity and interest rate data since 1870. On the other, we investigate the...

Regulation in countries that have adopted defined contribution (DC) pension systems based on savings accounts typically includes minimum return guarantees (MRG) provisions to limit the risk of financial downturns. This paper studies the consequences of this regulation over asset allocation...