Showing 1 - 10 of 8,120
Using U.S. data from 1926 to 2015, I show that financial skewness?a measure comparing cross-sectional upside and downside risks of the distribution of stock market returns of financial firms?is a powerful predictor of business cycle fluctuations. I then show that shocks to financial skewness are...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014115594
A single factor that captures assets' exposure to business-cycle variation in macroeconomic uncertainty can explain the level and cross-sectional differences of asset returns. Specifically, based on portfolio-level tests I demonstrate that fluctuations in uncertainty with persistence ranging...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014133052
We show that a business-cycle component of consumption growth (dubbed business-cycle consumption) with cycles between 2 and 4 years is effective in explaining the differences in risk premia across alternative test assets, including recently-proposed anomaly portfolios. We formalize the mapping...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012856904
We document strong U.S. stock and bond return predictability from several macroeconomic volatility series before 1982 … policy and shocks with time-varying volatility. The decline is consistent with changes in both policy and shock dynamics …. While an increase in the response to inflation in the interest-rate policy rule decreases volatility, more persistent and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011709322
We propose a new time-varying peaks over threshold model to study tail risk dynamics in equity markets: the laws of motion for the parameters are defined through the score-based approach. We apply the model to daily returns from U.S. size-sorted decile stock portfolios and show that large firm...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012972558
I first show that taking moving averages of the term spread, the dividend yield, and the Shiller’s CAPE, significantly increases their ability to predict one month and 12-month forward equity market excess returns, and the state of the business cycle. Dividend yield, CAPE and term spread are...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013245419
further developed by Engle and Kroner (1995)) to examine the return and volatility spillover between India and four leading … correlation and volatility transmission across the pre- and post-2008 global financial crisis periods (apart from other … developing countries. The result further shows a clear distinction in terms of volatility spillover between the Asian market vis …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014339125
require to bear the risk of fluctuations in stock market volatility. We develop a model in which return volatility and … volatility risk-premia are stochastic and derive no-arbitrage conditions linking volatility to macroeconomic factors. We estimate … realized volatility. We find that volatility risk-premia are strongly countercyclical, even more so than standard measures of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003848514
reflect information-driven and noise-induced volatilities. We find that all volatility components reveal distinct dynamics and … significantly declines thereafter. Moreover, news-affected responses in all volatility components are influenced by order flow … imbalances. -- efficient return ; macroeconomic announcements ; microstructure noise ; informational volatility …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003952800
reflect information-driven and noise-induced volatilities. We find that all volatility components reveal distinct dynamics and … significantly declines thereafter. Moreover, news-affected responses in all volatility components are influenced by order flow … imbalances. -- Efficient Return ; Macroeconomic Announcements ; Microstructure Noise ; Informational Volatility …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003947458