I explore empirically the interactions between international trade and stock markets. A simple "Lucas-tree" two-country, two-good, free-trade model with complete asset markets predicts that stock markets forecast trade flows and that stock markets react immediately and fully to news about...

The present paper investigates the relationship between consumption, labour income and household wealth in Australia within the inter-temporal consumption framework developed by Lettau and Ludvigson (2001). We first test for a long-run relationship among these series and then investigate whether...

We extend prior research examining the relation between aggregate recommendation changes and future returns by documenting that this relation varies over time as a function of the predictability of future earnings growth. When industry-level earnings growth is more predictable, we find that...

This study sheds new light on the question of whether or not sentiment surveys, and the expectations derived from them, are relevant to forecasting economic growth and stock returns, and whether they contain information that is orthogonal to macroeconomic and financial data. I examine 16...

Predictive regressions are linear specifications linking a noisy variable such as stock returns to past values of a more persistent regressor with the aim of assessing the presence of predictability. Key complications that arise are the potential presence of endogeneity and the poor adequacy of...