Showing 1 - 10 of 4,386
We propose a novel measure of the ex-ante commodity downside-risk premium (CDP) for each commodity based on a term structure model of commodity futures. Our theory-based CDP, capturing forward-looking information in the futures markets, outperforms well-known characteristics in explaining the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014239736
This paper analyses how stock returns on the U.S. manufacturing industry respond to raw materials price shock. Using monthly excess return data of the U.S. manufacturing industry and the percentage change of the U.S. raw materials price commodity index from 1960:M2 to 2012:M12, the vector auto...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012905551
This study decomposes a momentum factor (MOM) in the commodity futures market. A high-to-price (HTP) factor generates a higher Sharpe ratio than a price-to-high (PTH) factor. We uncover that the profitability mechanisms across three momentum factors are different. The positive returns on MOM and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013403618
Classical theories of monetary economics predict that real stock returns are negatively correlated with inflation when … countries with hyperinflation. In this paper, I examine the stock return-inflation relation under different monetary policy … regimes and conditions using an expanded dataset of 71 economies. Empirical evidence suggests that the stock return-inflation …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013306755
Inflation risk is greatest in times of national or global stress; inflation risk is a form of a “tail risk.” A … traditional portfolio of stocks and bonds is exposed to inflation risk. The specific nature of an investor's liabilities and … spending determines inflation sensitivity beyond that of the asset portfolio. Commodities and TIPS are the most effective short …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013103540
by modelling the time-varying dynamics of asset returns and inflation, and then estimating the cost of hedging in ation … inflation risks are not necessarily reduced with the inclusion of real estate assets in the minimum variance portfolio. Our … investors for holding the less attractive inflation-linked debt asset. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012241109
Compared with stocks, bonds are more directly affected by fluctuations in oil prices through the expected inflation … shocks predict negative real bond risk premium and positive inflation risk premium. Since these two effects offset each other … bond yield, breakeven inflation, and nominal bond yield respond differently to oil supply and demand shocks …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012900206
We evaluate the well-known Fisher Equation in the context of accounting income with a focus on its implicit assumptions regarding capital maintenance. Our findings indicate that the Fisher Equation does not allow for a consistent conversion from nominal to real terms, given that it modifies the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012822386
We show that inflation risk is priced in stock returns and that inflation risk premia in the cross-section and the … quantities of inflation risk changing over time. Using a consumption-based asset pricing model, we argue that inflation risk is … priced because inflation predicts real consumption growth. The historical changes in this predictability and in stocks …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012905328
We review the relationship between inflation and real stock returns. Stocks tend to outperform inflation over long … horizons, and recent data show a weakened correlation between inflation and real returns. However, controlling for monetary … inflation. We find that a one standard deviation increase in unexpected inflation can lower expected returns by about 1% per …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013289758