Revisions of consensus forecasts of macroeconomic variables positively predict announcement day forecast errors, whereas stock market returns on forecast revision days negatively predict announcement day returns. A dynamic noisy rational expectations model with periodic macroeconomic...

We develop a model of dealer-intermediated over-the-counter (OTC) markets in which customers choose their relationship dealers and dealers choose their levels of expertise, thereby determining the market structure and price informativeness jointly. We find that, in general, multiple equilibria...

During financial crises, financial market regulators often restrict short-selling to support prices and curb volatility. However, evidence suggests that short-selling bans during the turmoil in financial markets in 2007--2009 failed to achieve regulators' goals. We analyze a model of costly...

Using microdata on stock-level lending positions from German mutual funds, we show that active funds use the equity lending market to obtain information about short sale demand. Funds reduce long positions in response to these demand signals, which allows fund managers to front-run public...

If information is not perfect, theories prescribe a negative relation between information availability and expected stock returns. Using two readily available variables, price and volume, I construct a new proxy for information and test its relation to returns in the 1964-2007 period on...

We separately investigate the pricing relevance of informed trading predictable from public information, and that of unpredictable idiosyncratic informed trading that potentially captures private information. We use a direct profitability-based and immediacy-driven measure of price-relevant...

There has been a long debate on the interpretation of idiosyncratic return variation. We inform this debate by examining the extent to which stock return synchronicity is associated with the post-earnings announcement drift (PEAD) in China. We find that firms with higher synchronicity exhibit...

Based on the notion that private information necessarily accompanies trade and leads to return variation, this paper explores the positive relationship between informed trade and firm-specific return variation. Using the PIN as a measure of informed trade, we find that the PIN is positively...

We study volume-return dynamics using a framework in which information flows are endogenously determined and linked to a firm's investment activities. The framework generates time-varying differences of opinion (across investor types) and trading volume, especially when a firm receives...