We estimate agents' expectations about future fundamentals using a dynamic stochastic generalequilibrium model augmented with anticipated shocks. Accounting for agents' expectations atthe business cycle horizon results in aggregate risk factor innovations that have significant explanatory power...

We provide strong support for the underappreciated expected earnings hypothesis of negative correlation between aggregate stock returns and earnings (Sadka and Sadka (2009); Choi, Kalay, and Sadka (2016)). For the 1970 to 2000 period studied by Kothari, Lewellen, and Warner (2006), our powerful...

Dollar carry trade risk premiums – unlike dollar-neutral or foreign exchange carry risk premiums – are positively correlated with firm-level dispersions in investment, profitability, and book-to-market in addition to the Treasury-bill rate, long term bond yield, term spread, and default...

Dollar carry trade risk premiums - unlike dollar-neutral or foreign exchange carry risk premiums - are positively correlated with firm-level dispersions in investment, profitability, and book-to-market in addition to the Treasury-bill rate, long term bond yield, term spread, and default spread....

A single factor that captures assets' exposure to business-cycle variation in macroeconomic uncertainty can explain the level and cross-sectional differences of asset returns. Specifically, based on portfolio-level tests I demonstrate that fluctuations in uncertainty with persistence ranging...

This paper describes asset price and return disturbances as result of relations between transactions and multiple kinds of expectations. We show that disturbances of expectations can cause fluctuations of trade volume, price and return. We model price disturbances for transactions made under all...

This paper employes a parametric model of structural breaks in the mean of stock returns which allows them to be endogenously driven by large positive or negative stock market return shocks. These shocks can be taken to reflect important market announcements, monetary policy regime shifts and/or...