This paper examines the stability of the predictive power of the yield spread for future GDP growth. We find that the ability of the spread to predict future GDP growth has weakened since 1984:Q1. Given the decomposition of the yield spread into the expectation component and the term premium...

We explore whether economic links via trade affect aggregate Chinese stock market returns. We find that market return indices from countries that China net exports from can forecast the Chinese aggregate market return at the weekly time horizon. Countries that China net exports to have no...

This study sheds new light on the question of whether or not sentiment surveys, and the expectations derived from them, are relevant to forecasting economic growth and stock returns, and whether they contain information that is orthogonal to macroeconomic and financial data. I examine 16...

This study sheds new light on the question of whether or not sentiment surveys, and the expectations derived from them, are relevant to forecasting economic growth and stock returns, and whether they contain information that is orthogonal to macroeconomic and financial data. I examine 16...

The yield curve—specifically, the spread between the interest rates on the ten-year Treasury note and the three-month Treasury bill—is a valuable forecasting tool. It is simple to use and significantly outperforms other financial and macroeconomic indicators in predicting recessions two to six...

A practice that has become widespread is that of comparing forecasts of financial return variability obtained from discrete time models against high frequency estimates based on continuous time theory. In explanatory financial return variability modelling this raises several methodological and...

Economic theory identifies two potential sources of return predictability: time variation in expected returns (beta-predictability) or market inefficiencies (alpha-predictability). For the latter, Samuelson argued that macro-returns exhibit more inefficiencies than micro-returns, as individual...

A practice that has become widespread and widely endorsed is that of evaluating forecasts of financial variability obtained from discrete time models by comparing them with high-frequency ex post estimates (e.g. realised volatility) based on continuous time theory. In explanatory financial...

Using smooth transition regression model analysis, we examine the non-linear predictability of Japanese and US stock market returns by a set of macroeconomic variables between 1981 and 2012. The theoretical basis for investigating non-linear behavior in stock returns can be based on the...

Spread's predictive ability is reviewed by implementing a number of linear and probit models. We conduct a comparative analysis of the forecasting performance of various specifications by focusing on the last three major US economic slowdowns. The results indicate that although linear models are...