Recent studies have suggested that there may be a correlation between the order in which decision-makers collect information about risky gambles and their tendency to make expected value maximizing decisions. In this work we present results from an experiment designed to establish causality by...

Credible Granger-causality analysis appears to require post-sample inference, as it is well-known that in-sample fit can be a poor guide to actual forecasting effectiveness. However, post-sample model testing requires an often-consequential a priori partitioning of the data into an "in-sample"...