Central bank communication plays an important role in shaping market participants' expectations. This paper studies a simple nonlinear model of monetary policy in which agents have incomplete information about the economic environment. It shows that agents' learning and the dynamics of the...

This paper provides evidence on the extent to which inflation expectations generated by a standard Christiano et al. (2005)/Smets and Wouters (2003)–type DSGE model are in line with what is observed in the data. We consider three variants of this model that differ in terms of the behavior of,...

This paper explores the effects of central bank transparency on the performance of optimal inflation targeting rules. I assume that both the central bank and the private sector face uncertainty about the "correct" model of the economy and have to learn. A transparent central bank can reduce one...

This paper examines the performance of forecast-based nonlinear Taylor rules in a class of simple microfunded models. The paper shows that even if the policy rule leads to a locally determinate (and stable) inflation target, there exist other learnable "global" equilibria such as cycles and...

We study the effects of alternative institutional arrangements for the determination of monetary policy in the context of a capital-theoretic, general equilibrium economy. In the absence of an institutional arrangement, there is a continuum of steady state equilibria indexed by rates of...

April 16, 2012. "Hawks, Doves, Bubbles, and Inflation Targets" Presented at the George S. Eccles Distinguished Lecture, Jon M. Huntsman School of Business, Utah State University.

May 30, 2012. "Demographics, Redistribution, and Optimal Inflation," with Carlos Garriga and Christopher J. Waller. Presented by Christopher Waller at the 2012 BOJ-IMES Conference Demographic Changes and Macroeconomic Performance.

January 4, 2013. Presentation. "The Global Battle Over Central Bank Independence." NABE Panel Discussion: "Federal Reserve Independence in the Aftermath of the Financial Crisis: Should We Be Worried?" AEA/ASSA Annual Meeting, San Diego, California.

May 30, 2012. "Demographics, Redistribution, and Optimal Inflation," with Carlos Garriga and Christopher J. Waller. Presented by Christopher Waller at the 2012 BOJ-IMES Conference Demographic Changes and Macroeconomic Performance.