horizon-dependent biases and lower accuracy than simple unconditional uncertainty forecasts. We examine the inflation …

What determines the stochastic path of inflation? We study this question in a monetary economy featuring imperfect … information and rational expectations. The central bank follows an inflation targeting rule and communicates noisy information … about the future state of the economy to market participants through its public forecasts of inflation and output. Agents …

The paper studies probability forecasts of inflation and GDP by monetary authorities. Such forecasts can contribute to …