This paper presents the blueprint of a new ECB multi-country model. The version documented in the following pages is estimated on euro area data. As a prelude to the country models, this version is meant to enhance the understanding of the main model mechanisms, enlarge the suite of area wide...

The credit risk exposure of the German banking system is growing again after the 2009 peak and its subsequent reduction. This column comments it through the lens of the Target2 net balances in connection with the capital flows experienced by the Eurozone (EZ) balance of payments. Several aspects...

This paper presents the blueprint of a new ECB multi-country model. The version documented in the following pages is estimated on euro area data. As a prelude to the country models, this version is meant to enhance the understanding of the main model mechanisms, enlarge the suite of area wide...

Within a decision-making group, such as the monetary-policy committee of a central bank, group members often hold differing views about the future of key economic variables. Such differences of opinion can be thought of as reflecting differing sets of judgement. This paper suggests modelling...

Among the countries currently considering issuing a central bank digital currency (CBDC), including nearly all of G20, there is a strong preference for a retail CBDC made available to the general public through private intermediaries. This Policy Brief sheds light on the technical complexities...

A policy of forward guidance has been suggested either as a form of commitment (\Odyssean") or as a way of conveying information to the public (\Delphic"). I analyze the strategic interaction between households and the central bank as a game in which the central bank can send messages to the...

This paper applies the semi-structural model proposed by Bernanke and Blanchard (2023) to analyse wage growth, price inflation and inflation expectations in the euro area. It is part of a broader project coordinated by Bernanke and Blanchard to provide a unified framework for analysing and...

No one seems to be neutral about the effects of EMU on the German economy. Roughly speaking, there are two camps: those who see the euro as the advent of a newly open, large, and efficient regime which will lead to improvements in European and in particular in German competitiveness; those who...

The European sovereign debt crisis represents an interesting opportunity to investigate the reaction of the European Central Bank as a crisis fighting institution and the importance of central bank personalities in policy execution. Accordingly, this paper aims at investigating to what extent...