Many previous studies provide pricing models of options on futures spreads. However, none of them fully reflect the economic reality that spreads can stay near full carry for long periods of time. We suggest a new option pricing model that assumes that convenience yield follows arithmetic...

A new stochastic process is introduced where permanent changes occur following a Poisson jump process and temporary changes occur following a normal distribution. The model is estimated using hard wheat basis data and is used to explain why the optimal length of moving average to forecast basis...

USDA data are commonly used to determine producers' returns to storage. Aggregating data may result in a loss of information, leading to underestimated returns. This study compares USDA and elevator data from Oklahoma to determine how much USDA data underestimates returns. Results indicate USDA...

Little research has been conducted on evaluating out-of-sample forecasts of limited dependent variables. This study describes the large and small sample properties of two forecast evaluation techniques for limited dependent variables: receiver-operator curves and out-of-sample-log-likelihood...

Futures prices when combined with a basis forecast provide a reliable way to forecast cash prices. The most popular method of forecasting basis is historical moving averages. Given the recent failure of longer moving averages proposed by previous studies, this research reassesses past...

While considerable research has estimated liquidity costs of futures trading, little comparable research is available about options markets. This study determines effective bid-ask spreads in options and futures markets for Kansas City Board of Trade (KCBT) wheat. Effective bid-ask spreads are...

Improved software now makes Bayesian estimation a strong alternative to nonlinear maximum likelihood. Bayesian methods were used to estimate a linear response stochastic plateau for cotton and were shown to provide estimates similar to maximum likelihood. Optimal levels of nitrogen were lower...