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The predictive power of the user cost spread for economic recession in China and the US
Chang, Dongfeng; Mattson, Ryan S.; Tang, Biyan - In: International Journal of Financial Studies : open … 7 (2019) 2/34, pp. 1-12
The predictive power of the yield curve slope, or the yield spread is well established in the United States (US) and European Union (EU) countries since 1998. However, there exists a gap in the literature on the predictive power of the yield spread on the Chinese economy. This paper provides a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012038563
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Forecasting macroeconomy based on the term structure of credit spreads : evidence from China
Zhou, Rongxi; Wang, Xianliang; Tong, Guanqun - In: Applied economics letters 20 (2013) 13/15, pp. 1363-1367
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010203468
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Chinese economic behavior in times of COVID-19 : a new leading economic indicator based on Google trends
Monge González, Manuel; Claudio-Quiroga, Gloria; Poza, … - In: International economics : the quarterly journal in … 177 (2024), pp. 1-15
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014534629
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ROC and PRC approaches to evaluate recession forecasts
Lahiri, Kajal; Cheng, Yang - 2023
We have studied the relationship between Receiver Operating Characteristics (ROC) and Precision-Recall Curve (PRC) both analytically and using a real-life empirical example of yield spread as a predictor of recessions. We show that false alarm rate in ROC and inverted precision in PRC are...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014284725
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ROC and PRC Approaches to Evaluate Recession Forecasts
Lahiri, Kajal; Yang, Cheng - 2023
We have studied the relationship between Receiver Operating Characteristics (ROC) and Precision-Recall Curve (PRC) both analytically and using a real-life empirical example of yield spread as a predictor of recessions. We show that false alarm rate in ROC and inverted precision in PRC are...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014348182
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ROC and PRC Approaches to Evaluate Recession Forecasts
Lahiri, Kajal; Yang, Cheng - 2023
We have studied the relationship between Receiver Operating Characteristics (ROC) and Precision Recall Curve (PRC) both analytically and using a real-life empirical example of yield spread as a predictor of recessions. We show that false alarm rate in ROC and inverted precision in PRC are...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014350696
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An empirical examination of jump risk in asset pricing and volatility forecasting in China's equity and bond markets
Zhou, Haigang; Zhu, John Qi - In: Pacific-Basin finance journal 20 (2012) 5, pp. 857-880
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009619749
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International Volatility Risk and Chinese Stock Return Predictability
Chen, Jian - 2017
This paper investigates the predictive ability of international volatility risk for the daily aggregate Chinese stock … market returns. We employ the innovations in implied volatility indices of seven major international markets as our … international volatility risk proxies. We find that international volatility risks are negatively associated with contemporaneous …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012972144
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Price nonsynchronicity, idiosyncratic risk, and expected stock returns in China
Long, Huaigang; Zaremba, Adam; Jiang, Yuexiang - In: Economic research 33 (2020) 1,1, pp. 160-181
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013173486
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Idiosyncratic tail risk and expected stock returns : evidence from the Chinese stock markets
Long, Huaigang; Jiang, Yuexiang; Zhu, Yanjian - In: Finance research letters 24 (2018), pp. 129-136
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011982519