analytically and using a real-life empirical example of yield spread as a predictor of recessions. We show that false alarm rate in … quantify the extent to which ROC could be exaggerating the true predictive value of the yield curve in predicting recessions. …

information. Finally, when forecasting the headline CPI, our UIG for China outperforms traditional core measures over different …

underwriters and issuing firms in the Japanese corporate bond market, stochastic life table forecasting: a time-simultaneous fan …

the research. The first is to strengthen the leading organization of forecasting mechanisms on banana industry. The second … is to establish the forecasting mechanisms on banana industry, including four aspects. They are establishing the … subordinate forecasting systems on Hainan banana industry; constructing information collecting and checking mechanisms of banana …

shown that effect of accounting for spatial dependence is even more pronounced at longer forecasting horizons (the forecast …

indicators for forecasting quarterly Chinese GDP growth. We iterate the evaluation over forecast horizons from 370 days to 1 day … 2009. Industrial production can be quite valuable for now- or even forecasting, but only if it is released shortly after … manufacturing purchasing managers' index of the Chinese National Bureau of Statistics help much for now- or forecasting. Our results …

provides an appropriate tool for forecasting Chinese business conditions. …