This paper develops a framework for stress-testing the credit risk of Chinese commercial banks to macroeconomic shocks. Using data over the period 1985-2008, this study establishes a vector auto-regression (VAR) model to describe the links between default rate and macroeconomic factors, and then...

The dramatic fertility decline since the beginning of 1970s has decelerated the growth of China's working age population. From 2015, this growth will turn sharply negative, resulting declining labour force in China. This has caused concerns about the sustainability of China's economic growth....

China’s size limits its capacity to source further growth from exports and so the inevitable turn inward is in progress, as suggested by declining gross flows on its balance of payments relative to its GDP. Thus far, key home policy drivers have been fiscal expansion and public investment,...

This paper examines the impact of the participation of Vietnam to WTO as well as of the abolition of restrictions on Chinese exports of textiles and clothing to the US and EU on the Cambodian Economy, by using a computable general equilibrium model. A seminal aspect of this paper is that this...

This paper uses a multicountry macroeconometric model to estimate the macroeconomic effects of a Chinese yuan appreciation. The estimated effects on U.S. output and employment are modest. Positive effects on U.S. output from a decrease in imports from China are offset by negative effects on U.S....

China's rapid growth over the past decade has been one of the main drivers of the rise in mineral commodity demand and prices. At a time when concerns about the sustainability of China's growth model are rising, this paper assesses to what extent a hard landing in China would impact other...

China and Australia have increasingly strong links, especially through trade. These are driven by demand from China for Australian commodities (coal and iron ore) and services (tourism and education). These links are influenced by China's transition to a services-driven, consumer-led economy....

This paper presents empirical evidence of the role of financial conditions in China's business cycle. We estimate a Bayesian-VAR for the Chinese economy, incorporating a financial conditions index for China that captures movements across a range of financial variables, including interest rates...

Ways of extracting financial condition indices (FCI) are explored and alternative FCIs external to the Chinese economy are constructed to model their predictive content. The exploration aims at highlighting the rich and varied dynamic features of financial variables underlying FCIs and the...

This paper presents empirical evidence of the role of financial conditions in China's business cycle. We estimate a Bayesian-VAR for the Chinese economy, incorporating a financial conditions index for China that captures movements across a range of financial variables, including interest rates...