Ways of extracting financial condition indices (FCI) are explored and alternative FCIs external to the Chinese economy are constructed to model their predictive content. The exploration aims at highlighting the rich and varied dynamic features of financial variables underlying FCIs and the...

China's rapid economic growth is facilitating massive increases in its military spending and causing increased security concerns in Asia and the Western pacific. But there is uncertainty over how large China's military spending is relative to other countries, or how fast it is growing in real...

Gross domestic product (GDP) is shown to possess three new desiderata. First, GDP is almost perfectly correlated over time with the first principal component of its three classical indicators. Second, this principal component is in a class of weighted indexes ancillary to GDP. Each ancillary...

In this paper, employing several econometric techniques, the authors construct a financial stress index (CNFSI) and a financial conditions index (CNFCI) to measure the instability of China's financial system. The indices are based on the monthly data collected from China's inter-bank markets,...

In this paper, employing several econometric techniques, the authors construct a financial stress index (CNFSI) and a financial conditions index (CNFCI) to measure the instability of China's financial system. The indices are based on the monthly data collected from China's inter-bank markets,...

The headline consumer price index (CPI) is often considered too noisy, narrowly defined, and/or slowly available for policymaking. On the other hand, traditional core inflation measures may reduce volatility but do not address other issues and may even exclude important information. This paper...

We propose a comprehensive decomposition of changes in a country’s global market shares that accounts for the value added content of trade. We perform the analysis by combining two datasets – disaggregated trade data from UN Comtrade with internationally integrated Supply and Use Tables from...

China is taking a more active role on the world stage, even more so since its rapid and strong recovery from the global recession. In the financial realm this expansion is underpinned by a strategy to build strong and competitive capital markets at home. In order to achieve this goal,...

Increased population pressure and political decisions have led to more intensive agricultural practices in China. As in other regions of the world, these practices can damage natural capital. We use the Kalman filter and Chinese panel data to estimate an index of environmental productivity...

In the literature technical change is mostly assumed to be exogenous and specified as a function of time. However, some exogenous external factors other than time can also affect technical change. In this paper we model technical change via time trend (purely external non-economic) as well as...