China has experienced large improvements in mortality rates, but there remain substantial variations at the provincial level. This paper develops new models to project mortality at both the national and provincial levels in China. We propose two models in a Bayesian hierarchical framework based...

Purpose - Developing price forecasts for various agricultural commodities has long been a significant undertaking for a variety of agricultural market players. The weekly wholesale price of edible oil in the Chinese market over a ten-year period, from January 1, 2010 to January 3, 2020, is the...

This paper attempts to examine, compare and forecast the per capita GDP of India, the USA, China, and Japan for a period of ten years from 2020 to 2029. It studies the concept of economic convergence which states that the developing economies’ per capita income levels tend to move at a faster...

We employ Bayesian method to estimate a time-varying coefficient version of the de facto currency basket model of Frankel and Wei (2007) for the RMB of China, using daily data from February 2005 to July 2011. We estimate jointly the implicit time-varying weights of all 11 currencies in the...

We employ a Bayesian method to estimate a time-varying coefficient version of the de facto currency basket model of Frankel and Wei (2007) for the RMB of China, using daily data from February 2005 to July 2011. We estimate jointly the implicit time-varying weights of all 11 currencies in the...

We use available methods for testing macro models to evaluate a model of China over the period from Deng Xiaoping's reforms up until the crisis period. Bayesian ranking methods are heavily influenced by controversial priors on the degree of price/wage rigidity. When the overall models are tested...

Whether a firm is able to attract foreign capital and whether it may participate at the export market depends on whether the fixed costs associated with doing so are at least covered by the incremental operating profits. This paper provides evidence that success for some firms in attracting...

This paper proposes a Bayesian estimation framework for panel-data sets with binary dependent variables where a large number of cross-sectional units is observed over a short period of time, and cross-sectional units are interdependent in more than a single network domain. The latter provides...

This paper attempts to develop a financial vulnerability indicator for China as a barometer for the state of financial vulnerability in the Chinese financial market, possibly for real-time application. Twelve variables from different sectors are utilised to extract a common vulnerability...

In this paper, we make multi-step forecasts of the annual growth rates of the real GRP for each of the 31 Chinese provinces simultaneously. Beside the usual panel data models, we use panel models that explicitly account for spatial dependence between the GRP growth rates. In addition, the...