Jiang, Yuexiang; Fu, Tao; Long, Huaigang; Zaremba, Adam; … - 2022
We show that China’s real estate climate index (RECI) can be used to forecast the aggregate stock market return. It outperforms popular return predictors both in- and out-of-sample, especially at the monthly horizon. Additionally, RECI’s predictive ability is stronger among stocks of small...