This paper examines the historical effects of the El Nintilde;o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle on world prices and … economic activity. The analysis indicates that ENSO has economically-important and statistically-significant effects on world … inflation movements over the past several years. ENSO also has some explanatory power for world consumer price inflation and …

This paper examines the historical effects of El Nino on world prices and economic activity. Although the primary focus … is on world real non-oil primary commodity prices, the effects on G-7 consumer price inflation and GDP growth are also … measures. Finally, confidence intervals are constructed for all estimated effects of El Nino on world prices and economic …