The quantitative analyses related to firms’ default prediction extensively analyzed which balance sheet ratios include significant information on the probability of default of a firm. These analyses are typically aimed at measuring a generic default risk, while no analyses are aimed at...

We develop quantitative methods to support financial product analysis-redesign required by the Carbon Equivalence Principle (CEP) to achieve financial net-zero and thus carbon net-negative positions. We then apply the CEP analysis-redesign to project finance for power generation across a range...

We introduce Climate Change Valuation Adjustment (CCVA) to capture climate change impacts on CVA+FVA that are currently invisible assuming typical market practice. To discuss such impacts on CVA+FVA from changes to instantaneous hazard rates we introduce a flexible and expressive...

In 2009, the promise of a comprehensive federal cap and trade bill to address climate change fell apart. At least in part, this was due to the fears that exotic 'carbon' financial instruments might cause more financial crises. As California launches it economy wide carbon trading system, and...

Hindsight tells us that COVID-19, thought by Trump and others to have come out of nowhere, is more aptly labelled a “gray rhino” event, one that was highly probable and one that we had the power to prevent. Indeed, despite considerable evidence of the impending threats of pandemics, for the...

Aligning investments to the climate and sustainability targets requires the introduction of stable climate-aligned policies. In this regard, a global Carbon Tax (CT) and a revision of the microprudential banking framework via a Green Supporting Factor (GSF) have been advocated. However, our...

This paper quantifies the loan exposure to elevated environmental risk sectors of the banking system in the USA, EU, China, Japan and Switzerland in US$1.6tn, broadly in line with the findings of Battiston et al. (2017) and Weyzig et al. (2014). This paper also explores prudential policy...

The urgency of estimating the impact of climate risks on the financial system is increasingly recognized among scholars and practitioners. By adopting a network approach to financial dependencies, we look at how climate policy risk might propagate through the financial system. We develop a...

Not very. We find that weather disasters over the last quarter century had insignificant or small effects on U.S. banks' performance. This stability seems endogenous rather than a mere reflection of federal aid. Disasters increase loan demand, which offsets losses and actually boosts profits at...

There is growing acknowledgement among policymakers that climate change may give rise to potentially catastrophic financial risk and impact financial stability. This paper explores the specific features of climate-related financial risks (CRFR), drawing on a growing body of macrofinancial...