This paper is an exercise in applied macroeconomic forecasting. We examine the forecasting power of a vector error-correction model (VECM) that is anchored by a long-run equilibrium relationship between Greek national income and productive public expenditure as suggested by the economic theory....

The paper studies Non-Stationary Dynamic Factor Models such that: (1) the factors F_t are I(1) and singular, i.e. F_t has dimension r and is driven by a q-dimensional white noise, the common shocks, with q r, and (2) the idiosyncratic components are I(1). We show that F_t is driven by r − c...

This paper examines the relationship between consumer confidence and consumption expenditures in the US for the period 1970:1-2007:4. Consumer confidence surveys are widely reported in the business and economics media and play an important role in the direction of business decisions and equity...

This paper studies the dynamics of the Taka-U.S.Dollar exchange rate for Bangladesh by augmenting the Quantity Theory of Money. The standard cointegration methodology (Engle and Granger, 1987) is employed in addition to the ARDL (Autoregressive Distributed Lag) procedure. The ADF and KPSS tests...

This paper analyzes the impact of international oil prices on Thailand’s industrial production using Johansen cointegration test. The results show that U.S. dollar real exchange rate does not affect the economy’s industrial production index, while oil prices, and real money supply...

Money demand in Venezuela is modeled using structural time series and error correction approaches, for the period 1993.1 to 2001.4. The preferred model features seasonal cointegration and was estimated following a structural time series approach. There are similarities in the long-run behavior...

Purpose This paper explores the evidence of a long-run co-movement between aggregate unemployment insurance spending and the labor force participation rate in the USA. The unemployment insurance (UI) program tends to expand during an economic downturn and contract during an expansion. UI may...

In this paper cointegration analysis is used to examine the long-run relationship between money, prices, output, and interest rates. This paper finds convincing evidence in support of the quantity theory of money using time series data from the United States.

In this paper cointegration analysis is used to examine the long-run relationship between money, prices, output, and interest rates. This paper finds convincing evidence in support of the quantity theory of money using time series data from the United States.

This paper is an exercise in applied macroeconomic forecasting. We examine the forecasting power of a vector error-correction model (VECM) that is anchored by a long-run equilibrium relationship between Greek national income and productive public expenditure as suggested by the economic theory....